Why Are Younger Drivers at Higher Risk of Accidents?

A Comprehensive Analysis of Contributing Factors, Statistical Trends, Expert Views, and Global and Australian Contexts

Introduction

Road safety among younger drivers is a critical concern worldwide. The disproportionate risk faced by new and young drivers has persisted for decades, prompting research, the development of regulatory frameworks, public health campaigns, and technological strategies to reduce crash involvement and fatalities. Globally, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death among young people aged 15–29, accounting for around a quarter of all deaths in the 15–24 age group according to the World Health Organisation. Australia mirrors these global trends: younger drivers remain substantially over-represented in road crash statistics, especially in fatal and serious injury crashes, despite making up a much smaller proportion of the licensed driver population.

The reasons for this heightened risk are multifaceted, encompassing direct behavioural factors, underlying psychological and developmental traits, environmental contexts, and the relative inexperience of young drivers. This report seeks to provide a rigorous and comprehensive examination of the elevated crash risk among younger drivers by analysing the major contributing factors—including inexperience, risk-taking behaviour, distraction, impairment, and peer and environmental influences—supported by statistical data, recent studies, and expert commentary. Both global insights and Australian-specific findings are explored in detail, concluding with an analysis of prevention strategies and the promise and limitations of emerging technological solutions.

A summary table is included to highlight key risk factors and their documented impact. Each risk area is first introduced with data and literature insights, then unpacked with a focus on mechanisms, psychological aspects, and contextual specifics—emphasising the practical implications for policy, education, regulation, and industry.

Key Risk Factors and Their Impact: Summary Table

This table encapsulates the breadth of empirical findings, showing the intricate interplay between developmental, behavioural, environmental, and regulatory factors in shaping young driver crash risk.

Inexperience and Skill Development

Young drivers' over-involvement in road trauma is, above all, a function of inexperience. Globally and in Australia, crash rates are highest among newly licensed drivers, with risk peaking in the first 6–12 months of solo driving. In Queensland, young drivers account for only 13.7% of licenses but nearly a quarter (24.9%) of fatal driver/rider deaths. In the US, 15–20-year-olds had a fatal crash rate nearly four times that of older drivers in recent years, with inexperience and risk-taking cited as leading causal factors.

A major Australian study measuring crash involvement across the first five years post-licensure found a steady decline in crashes from the first month through to the fifth year, illustrating the “exposure curve” that characterises novice drivers. In Victoria, GLS reforms and requirements for 120 hours of supervised learner driving have driven down novice driver crash rates, but the initial solo driving phase—before sufficient defensive skills are embedded—remains by far the most hazardous.

Inexperience manifests through several mechanisms:

• Deficient hazard perception: Younger drivers often fail to scan effectively, anticipate hazards, or respond optimally under pressure.
• Under-developed multitasking and attention management: Novices are less able to divide attention between the primary driving task and secondary demands (e.g., signage, navigation, controls).
• Over-confidence: Young drivers may overestimate their skills, underestimating crash risk in complex or unfamiliar situations.
• Executive function limitations: The immaturity of the prefrontal cortex in adolescents results in poorer working memory, inhibitory control, and decision-making under stress, critically impairing their capacity to adapt to rapidly changing road environments.

Expert analysis underscores that skills-based education alone is often insufficient. Rather, a “maturing out” process must occur, with broad exposure to challenging but supervised driving environments treated as essential to risk reduction. Inexperience thus sets the stage for additional, behaviourally-driven risk factors to exert their undue influence.

Risk-Taking Behaviour

A characteristic and well-documented trait among young drivers is the higher propensity to take risks on the road—manifesting in speeding, aggressive driving, running amber/red lights, and overtaking unsafely. Surveys consistently show that sensation-seeking (thrill-oriented) young people engage more frequently in such behaviours, with high sensation seekers in Western Australia being 61% more likely to have a police-reported crash within the first year of driving. Males are especially overrepresented: in Queensland, around 80% of young drivers in fatal crashes are male.

Australian research finds these attitudes are not merely impulsive but can be socially and psychologically motivated: young people report perceiving more “benefit” to risky driving (such as impressing peers), are more likely to identify positively with risk, and less likely to internalise the potentially catastrophic costs. The immaturity of risk-appraisal circuits in the adolescent brain—combined with underdeveloped inhibitory control—means young drivers are both more likely to initiate and less able to self-regulate risky actions.

Recent data from Victoria shows that, despite ongoing interventions, young drivers’ self-reported rate of speeding increased post-enhancement of the graduated licensing system—increasing 5% for 18–20-year-olds and 10.3% for those aged 21–24. These findings reinforce the role of persistent attitudinal factors in risky driving.

Binge drinking is pervasive among Australian youth, and adolescent binge drinkers are nearly three times more likely to engage in multiple risky behaviours behind the wheel—including speeding and running lights—than their non-drinking peers.

Taken together, the data demonstrate that risky driving in youth is a complex interaction between personality, neurodevelopment, social context, and institutional frameworks—requiring comprehensive, multi-pronged prevention strategies.

Distraction and Mobile Phone Use

With the rise of smartphones, distraction has become a dominant crash risk, particularly for young drivers who have grown up tethered to their devices. Despite laws prohibiting device use, survey and enforcement data show persistent noncompliance: in Queensland, about half of all drivers admit to browsing or texting behind the wheel, with use more common among those aged 17–25.

Research shows that texting while driving increases the risk of a crash by at least 3.6 times; some studies put the figure as high as ten-fold. A Queensland University of Technology simulator study found that young novice drivers spent four times as long looking away from the road when using a mobile phone, with reaction times and hazard detection significantly impaired—even with hands-free devices. Notably, using hands-free is not substantially safer than handheld use, as the principal problem is cognitive distraction, not just physical.

Major impacts of phone use and distraction include:

• Slowed reaction times, especially in response to peripheral hazards (e.g. pedestrians, cyclists),
• Greater speed variation, more abrupt braking, and less effective headway management,
• Decreased attention to mirrors, signage, and changing road conditions,
• Elevated likelihood of missing hazards or critical traffic signals.

Legislation across Australian states and territories has responded with escalating fines and demerit points, as well as bans on both handheld and hands-free usage for learners and provisional (P1 and P2) drivers. Despite these measures, technological solutions (e.g., in-car phone-blocking, driving modes for smart devices) are being trialled as further deterrents. Educational interventions increasingly focus on shifting beliefs regarding the “control” young drivers feel they can exert over their phone use, which research shows is misplaced and linked to a heightened crash risk.

Impaired Driving (Alcohol and Drugs)

Alcohol and, increasingly, drug-impaired driving remain a major problem for young drivers. In 2019–20, Australians aged 15–24 had the highest rates of alcohol-related transport injury hospitalisation—16 per 100,000—with the crash risk particularly acute in males, who account for 77% of cases. Western Australian data found that drivers aged 18–25 represented a quarter of all alcohol-related crashes, despite accounting for just 16% of all licensed drivers; their odds of involvement were the highest of any age group.

Binge drinking increases crash risk dramatically: a national study found 57% of adolescent binge drinkers (16–18 y.o.) had experienced at least one crash, compared with only 18% among non-drinkers. Further, binge drinkers were much more likely to also engage in other risky practices—use of mobile phones, “amber gambling,” and unsafe overtaking.

Australian law mandates zero blood alcohol concentration (BAC) for learners and provisional drivers, a condition validated by research as significantly cutting alcohol-related white those controls to the age of full licensure. Education, enforcement (e.g. random breath testing), and parental rule-setting are all crucial elements in limiting impaired driving amongst youth.

Speeding and Aggressive Driving

Speeding remains the single most important predictor of fatality and serious injury in young driver crashes. In Victoria, 30% of road deaths in the past five years were attributed to speeding, with nearly 80% of these incidents involving a driver exceeding the speed limit by only 1–9 km/h. Young drivers are over twice as likely as older drivers to routinely speed, with one in three young Victorians (aged 21–25) admitting to regular speeding in the 2025 CESAR survey, compared to 15% of the general driver population.

Crash frequency is especially high at highway speeds: BITRE data reveals that most 17–25-year-old road deaths occur at or above 100 km/h, often on regional or outer urban roads where young drivers’ training has not provided sufficient experience for high-speed hazard management. Male young drivers account for around 2.6 times more driver fatalities compared to the population average, and the prevalence of high-powered, older vehicles without modern safety features further increases the severity of speed-related crashes.

Expert opinions stress that effective speed management is a behavioural and psychological issue as much as a knowledge one, requiring integration of enforcement, peer influences, driver education, and regulatory approaches (e.g., lower permissible speed for learners/provisionals, vehicle power restrictions).

Night-Time Driving Risks

Driving at night increases risk for all drivers, but exponentially so for young and inexperienced drivers. Factors include lower visibility, increased prevalence of fatigue and impairment, more frequent “recreational” driving (e.g., social events, parties), and greater likelihood of driving with peer passengers. In Australia, novice driver policies often restrict night-time driving—Victoria, for instance, bans provisional drivers from carrying more than one passenger aged under 21 between 11pm–5am, while WA includes a midnight–5am ban during the first six months.

A targeted passenger restriction policy in NSW—banning first-year drivers from carrying two or more passengers under 21 between 11pm and 5am—was shown in a landmark study to reduce multi-passenger night crashes by 57%, casualties by 50%, and fatalities by 58%. The intervention’s impact persisted into subsequent years, suggesting both compliance and habit-formation as mechanisms.

International evaluations demonstrate that strong nighttime and passenger restrictions in graduated licensing phases reduce crash rates among young drivers by up to half. The effectiveness of such policies is amplified when supported by robust enforcement and community/parental buy-in.

Passenger and Peer Influence

Perhaps the most insidious risk factor for young drivers is the effect of peers—especially same-age passengers. Multiple empirical studies find that carrying even one peer passenger increases young driver fatality risk by 50% compared to driving alone; three passengers can triple or quadruple the risk. In Australia, crash risk for provisional drivers carrying multiple passengers is about four times higher than for those driving alone, despite peer passenger trips constituting only 9% of driving time.

Mechanisms for increased crash risk include:

• Direct distraction by conversation, music, or rowdiness (loud conversation is five times more common, horseplay nine times more likely in cars with multiple teen passengers),
• Implicit or explicit encouragement of rule-breaking (e.g., speeding, running lights),
• Amplified risk-taking in the presence of same-sex/male peers due to social motivations and emotional arousal,
• Reduced seatbelt use—a frequent factor in young driver/passenger fatalities.

Evidence is clear that passenger restrictions in the first year or more of provisional licensing are highly effective. In Victoria, the introduction of a peer passenger restriction produced a 69.8% reduction in casualty crash involvement when carrying two or more peers, with self-reported compliance rates high and peer influence declining as young drivers matured.

Psychological Development and Decision Making

Adolescent drivers are not merely “inexperienced adults.” The period from mid-teen years to the mid-twenties is characterised by profound neurological and psychological changes. The prefrontal cortex, responsible for higher-order planning, inhibitory control, and multitasking, does not reach full maturity until the mid-20s. Meanwhile, subcortical brain structures associated with reward-seeking and emotion are hyperactive in adolescence, increasing susceptibility to impulsive choices and peer influence.

Key limitations for young drivers include:

• Underdeveloped working memory and inhibitory control—linked to poor scanning, increased distracted or impulsive actions, and more frequent subjective “loss of control” incidents,
• Overestimation of their capacity to manage risk, particularly when in emotionally charged contexts (e.g., with friends, when running late, or under social pressure)-,
• Stronger motivational wiring for social acceptance and approval, which can manifest as “showing off” through speeding, or accepting dare-devil challenges.

Research indicates that effective driver education must train and scaffold executive functions, not just technical skills, highlighting the need for simulation and scenario-based approaches that expose young drivers to challenging, multitasking environments within safe contexts. Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and telematics present both promise and new risks: while they can provide real-time feedback and warnings, younger drivers may over-rely on technology, neglect foundational hazard perception and risk weighting skills.

Environmental Factors (Road and Weather)

Young drivers are disproportionately involved in crashes in challenging environments—rural/remote roads, poor weather, and high-speed zones. In 2024, vehicle occupants (drivers and passengers) accounted for about two-thirds of all Australian road fatalities, with over half occurring on speed-limited roads of 100 km/h or more. Regional and remote Australia, where less than 30% of the population resides, accounts for 76% of vehicle occupant fatalities and 47% of vulnerable road user fatalities—reflecting the more hazardous, unforgiving road environments and longer response times for emergency services.

Wet weather, reduced visibility (night, fog), and unpredictable surfaces (rural, unsealed or poorly maintained roads) all amplify both the likelihood and severity of crashes involving young and inexperienced drivers. Novices are less skilled at adjusting speed, managing braking on slippery roads, and anticipating hazards under rapidly shifting conditions. Compounding the risk, young drivers are more likely to drive older vehicles, which often lack modern safety features and crash avoidance technologies, exacerbating injury and fatality rates in serious accidents.

Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) Systems

Comprehensive GDL or GLS are now established as among the most successful interventions to reduce young driver crash risk. These systems introduce staged progression from supervised learning through various probationary phases, layering experience-building requirements (minimum supervised hours—often 100–120 hours), strict behaviour controls (zero BAC, night/peer passenger restrictions), and incremental lifting of restrictions with demonstrated safe driving over time.

Australian evaluations report marked effects: the introduction of GDL models led to a 23–42% reduction in serious crash involvement across Victoria, a 30% reduction in novice driver fatal crashes in Queensland, and consistent fatality reductions across all states. Stronger GDL schemes correlate with greater effectiveness; key elements include robust supervised learning requirements, meaningful restrictions during the highest-risk early solo driving phase, and effective enforcement with meaningful demerits and sanctions for infractions.

The Victoria GLS, widely lauded for its effectiveness, requires 120 hours of supervised driving, implements a four-year probationary period, peer passenger restrictions, and a ban on mobile phone use for provisional drivers. Post-GLS, the state saw a 42.5% reduction in fatal or serious injury crashes for 18–23-year-olds.

Global Statistical Trends

Global data reinforce Australia’s experience. Young drivers aged 15–24 are responsible for between 18–30% of all road fatalities in OECD countries, despite representing only 9–13% of drivers. For every young driver killed, studies estimate that 1.3 additional people die in the same collisions; therefore, interventions focused on this group yield disproportionate safety gains for all road users.

Fatality rates per mile travelled are two to three times higher for 16–20-year-olds than for any other age group except the oldest drivers. High-income countries that have implemented robust phased licensing, strict BAC enforcement, and technological solutions have seen drops in youth fatalities of up to 50% over two decades, though the risk gap endures.

Australian-Specific Data and Studies

In Australia, raw numbers mask significant relative risk. The 15–24 age group made up only 14% of licensed drivers in 2023, but comprised 22% of driver deaths and 21% of passenger deaths, meaning young people are still overrepresented by a wide margin.

Long-term data show improvement: youth road fatalities have halved in Australia and New Zealand since 2000, while fatalities for all ages decreased by 23%—testament to evidence-based policy success, including GDL systems and community interventions. However, this improvement has plateaued post-pandemic, with total annual road deaths in Australia rising 12% from 2018 to 2023, and the proportional increase lowest among the two youngest age groups, suggesting some policy resilience but ongoing major risks.

Hospitalisation data emphasise the burden: among 15–24-year-olds, transport injuries account for the most hospital admissions (crude rate 378.7 per 100,000), with young males hospitalised at rates over 500 per 100,000—by far the highest of any age cohort.

Prevention and Education Interventions

Multi-tiered, community-wide and resilience-focused prevention programs are showing increasing efficacy in reducing young driver crash risk. Resilience-building approaches that target broader life skills—not just driving-specific skills—produce up to a 44% reduction in crash involvement when compared to narrow, one-off programs.

Role-modelling and parental involvement are decisive: a Queensland study found that young drivers whose parents set clear expectations, provide oversight, offer transportation alternatives, and use emotional leverage (guilt, pride, disappointment) adhere more consistently to GDL restrictions and exhibit reduced risk-taking. Programs for parents and pre-learners (e.g., Youthsafe’s Teen Safe Driving Workshops) further instil safe habits before solo driving begins.

School-based and community mentor-based support, such as the Ryda program and L2P learner driver mentor projects, build critical connections, reinforce rule adherence, and assist disadvantaged youths to access necessary hours and safe practice contexts.

Standard “advanced” skills training has equivocal evidence; overconfidence can result if not paired with a maturity/coaching component and incremental, scenario-based exposure to real risk . Instead, the most effective driver education now focuses on hazard anticipation, attention shifting, and building executive cognitive controls.

Technological Solutions: ADAS and Telematics

Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)—including lane-keeping assist, emergency braking, blind spot detection, and collision warnings—are rapidly propagating in the new vehicle fleet. Crash modelling shows these systems can reduce rear-end or lane departure crashes by 20–45%, with particularly high potential to save lives if widely adopted.

However, actual benefit depends on correct use, effective driver education, and widespread adoption. Many teens are typically driving older, less safe vehicles with few or no modern safety features due to cost and family resource constraints—paradoxically putting the highest-risk drivers in the least-forgiving vehicles.

Beyond access and affordability issues, over-reliance and misuse is a growing problem: young drivers may become complacent or distracted, wrongly assuming the system will compensate for inattention or poor decision-making. Education on the capabilities and limitations of ADAS is critical, and simulation-based training can ensure that drivers engage with the technology in a way that supplements rather than substitutes for core hazard perception skills.

Telematics—systems that provide feedback based on driving patterns (e.g., speed, hard braking, swerves, times driven)—have shown promise in parental monitoring, insurance incentives, and direct feedback for novice drivers. Real-time feedback loops, especially those tied to “safe driver” incentives, may reinforce positive behaviour if coupled with education.

Policy and Regulation Interventions

Enforcement remains an essential pillar of road safety for young drivers. Australian states maintain increasingly strict fines, demerit points, and even vehicle impounding for persistent high-risk behaviours (e.g. extreme speeding, repeat phone or substance violations). Zero BAC, peer passenger, and mobile phone restrictions serve as crucial boundaries during the period of highest vulnerability, especially when combined with targeted enforcement (e.g., mobile phone detection cameras, random drug/alcohol testing).

Evaluations show that penalties must be sufficiently certain (high detection rate), swift, and severe to affect young male drivers in particular—who are less responsive to delayed or minor sanctions. Policy review continues to recommend expansion of supervised hours, extension of zero BAC periods, and reconsideration of licensing age to further reduce risk exposure.

Expert Opinions and Commentary

Consensus among road safety researchers is robust: the high crash risk faced by new and young drivers is above all a product of inexperience interacting with developmental traits of adolescence—imperfect judgement, greater risk acceptance, and highly social motivation. While a “maturation” process helps close this risk gap with time and exposure, the acute risk of death and serious injury during the early years behind the wheel justifies extraordinary regulatory and educational attention.

Steinberg, a leading developmental psychologist, argues that reducing the opportunity for immature judgement to cause harm is more realistic than attempting to “teach” young people out of risk-taking entirely. This philosophy underpins modern graduated licensing regimes and continues to inform innovative prevention and education strategies.

Research leaders in Australia and worldwide call for continued whole-of-community efforts, combining school programs, parent engagement, technology, enforcement, and incentive structures. Policy must remain evidence-driven, equitable, and responsive to emerging risks and technologies—particularly as new forms of distraction and mobility enter the market.

Conclusion

The elevated risk of crashes among young drivers is the product of a complex interplay of inexperience, risk-taking propensity, social and psychological development, and environmental and technological factors. The empirical and expert evidence is overwhelming: without robust regulatory, educational, and technological interventions, youth road trauma would remain among the most intractable public health issues of the modern era.

Australian and global efforts have achieved significant reductions—fatalities have more than halved over two decades for youth—even as risk remains unacceptably high. The way forward lies in continued expansion and enhancement of GDL systems, stronger parental and school engagement, deployment of adaptive, evidence-based prevention programs, careful integration of technological advances, and unwavering focus on equity and enforcement.

Every effective intervention—whether law, technology, or road safety education—must account for the reality that young drivers are both learning and transitioning into adult independence. The task is not to eliminate risk entirely, but to ensure that the support, scaffolding, and safeguards in place are sufficient that as young drivers learn, they survive.

As governments, industry, families, and educators, there can be no higher priority than guaranteeing that every young driver emerges from those formative years with habits, skills, and attitudes that set the foundation for a lifetime of safe road use.

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